Mariners at Guardians
Last play · Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
SEA 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 1 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Manzardo homers (23) on a line drive to right field. José Ramírez scores. (inning 6) — +17% Guardians
8Julio Rodríguez homers (26) on a fly ball to left field. Randy Arozarena scores.3–4
7Steven Kwan singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Nolan Jones scores. Brayan Rocchio to 3rd. Steven Kwan to 2nd. Steven Kwan advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by center fielder Julio Rodríguez.1–4
7Jorge Polanco homers (22) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
6Kyle Manzardo homers (23) on a line drive to right field. José Ramírez scores.0–3
4Bo Naylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. José Ramírez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
