Cardinals at Reds
Last play · TJ Friedl grounds out, pitcher Kyle Leahy to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 1 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church singles on a ground ball to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jordan Walker scores. Thomas Saggese scores. Pedro Pagés to 2nd. (inning 4) — -26% Cardinals
8Pedro Pagés homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
7Matt McLain homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
7Willson Contreras homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
4Nathan Church singles on a ground ball to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jordan Walker scores. Thomas Saggese scores. Pedro Pagés to 2nd.2–1
1Gavin Lux doubles (23) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Elly De La Cruz scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
