Marlins at Mets
MIA11–
NYM8Last play · Cedric Mullins strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIA 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 8 – 6 NYM
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto homers (35) on a line drive to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 6) — +31% Mets
9Connor Norby doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Agustín Ramírez scores. Liam Hicks scores.11–8
7Connor Norby out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Agustín Ramírez scores.9–8
6Juan Soto homers (35) on a line drive to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores.8–8
4Juan Soto homers (34) on a fly ball to right center field.8–6
3Mark Vientos homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Juan Soto scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.8–5
3Derek Hill grounds into a double play, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso. Connor Norby scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. Joey Wiemer out at 2nd. Derek Hill out at 1st.8–2
3Mets challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Joey Wiemer singles on a fly ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Eric Wagaman scores. Connor Norby to 3rd. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.7–2
3Jakob Marsee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Heriberto Hernández scores. Eric Wagaman to 3rd. Connor Norby to 2nd.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.