Padres at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis pops out to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Win probability
Twins0%
SD 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 3 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (28) on a fly ball to right field. James Outman scores. (inning 5) — +25% Twins
8Ramón Laureano homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores.12–3
7Elias Díaz homers (8) on a line drive to left field. Jake Cronenworth scores.10–3
7Jake Cronenworth doubles (18) on a fly ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Bryce Johnson scores.8–3
7Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Manny Machado scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.6–3
7Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.5–3
7Manny Machado singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder James Outman. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.4–3
6Gavin Sheets singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Manny Machado scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd.3–3
6Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to left fielder James Outman. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
