Rays at Nationals
Last play · Luis García Jr. grounds out sharply, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Bob Seymour.
Win probability
Nationals0%
TB 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 0 WSH
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Lowe scores. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 1) — -28% Rays
8James Wood singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Luis García Jr. scores. Robert Hassell III to 3rd.4–1
4Josh Lowe homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
1Josh Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Lowe scores. Junior Caminero scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
