Braves at Phillies
Last play · Bryson Stott strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Fraley scores. (inning 9) — -41% Braves
9Drake Baldwin homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Fraley scores.3–1
8Matt Olson grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Vidal Bruján scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd. Jurickson Profar to 2nd.1–1
4Brandon Marsh homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
