Mariners at Guardians
Last play · José Ramírez lines out to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Guardians0%
SEA 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 2 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Guardians challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Daniel Schneemann. J.P. Crawford scores. Cole Young scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd. (inning 7) — -31% Mariners
7Guardians challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Daniel Schneemann. J.P. Crawford scores. Cole Young scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.4–2
5Randy Arozarena homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. J.P. Crawford scores.2–2
3Daniel Schneemann homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Steven Kwan scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
