Rays at Nationals
Last play · Brady House strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
TB 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 7 – 4 WSH
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe hits a grand slam (28) to right field. Everson Pereira scores. Tristan Gray scores. Carson Williams scores. (inning 2) — -21% Rays
4Brady House singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Andrés Chaparro scores. Dylan Crews scores. Brady House to 2nd. Brady House advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Chandler Simpson.7–4
4Dylan Crews reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Junior Caminero. Riley Adams scores. Andrés Chaparro to 2nd.7–2
3Jacob Young doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Brady House scores.7–1
3Everson Pereira out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Josh Lowe scores.7–0
2Brandon Lowe hits a grand slam (28) to right field. Everson Pereira scores. Tristan Gray scores. Carson Williams scores.6–0
2Carson Williams walks. Bob Seymour scores. Everson Pereira to 3rd. Tristan Gray to 2nd.2–0
2Everson Pereira singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brady House. Josh Lowe scores. Bob Seymour to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Brady House.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
