Marlins at Mets
Last play · Cedric Mullins grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Otto Lopez. Mark Vientos out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mets0%
MIA 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 5 – 0 NYM
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Agustín Ramírez homers (19) on a line drive to left center field. Jakob Marsee scores. (inning 3) — -21% Marlins
7Cedric Mullins grounds into a force out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to shortstop Otto Lopez. Jeff McNeil scores. Brett Baty out at 2nd. Cedric Mullins to 1st.5–1
5Xavier Edwards singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Brett Baty. Javier Sanoja scores. Xavier Edwards to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Brett Baty.5–0
4Heriberto Hernández singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Liam Hicks scores.4–0
3Agustín Ramírez homers (19) on a line drive to left center field. Jakob Marsee scores.3–0
1Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Jakob Marsee scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
