Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Nathan Church strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Hays homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 5) — +25% Reds
8Matt McLain homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.4–7
7Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Austin Hays scores.4–6
7Jimmy Crooks homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
5Austin Hays homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Elly De La Cruz scores.3–5
3Cardinals challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Iván Herrera out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Lars Nootbaar scores.3–3
2TJ Friedl singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Spencer Steer scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Matt McLain to 2nd.2–3
2Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Gavin Lux scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd.2–1
1Thomas Saggese singles on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Iván Herrera scores. Thomas Saggese to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
