Pirates at Red Sox
Last play · Liover Peguero strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
PIT 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran hits an inside-the-park home run (14) on a line drive to right-center field. Carlos Narváez scores. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 5) — +33% Red Sox
7Alexander Canario homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
6Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jared Triolo. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd.1–5
5Jarren Duran hits an inside-the-park home run (14) on a line drive to right-center field. Carlos Narváez scores. Alex Bregman scores.1–4
5Roman Anthony grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Romy Gonzalez scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd.1–1
4Henry Davis grounds out, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to pitcher Lucas Giolito.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
