Orioles at Giants
Last play · Drew Gilbert grounds out sharply, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.
Win probability
Giants0%
BAL 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 1 SF
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Giants favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremiah Jackson homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Daniel Johnson scores. (inning 3) — -23% Orioles
8Ryan Mountcastle strikes out swinging.11–1
8Jeremiah Jackson doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Luis Matos. Samuel Basallo scores. Daniel Johnson scores.10–1
7Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Ryan Mountcastle scores.8–1
4Gunnar Henderson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luis Matos. Jackson Holliday scores.7–1
4Jackson Holliday triples (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Daniel Johnson scores.6–1
4Samuel Basallo homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
3Ryan Mountcastle homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.4–1
3Jeremiah Jackson homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Daniel Johnson scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
