Brewers at Blue Jays
MIL4–
TOR8Last play · William Contreras grounds out, third baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 4 – 8 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes doubles (16) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +24% Blue Jays
5Myles Straw singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Andrés Giménez scores. Tyler Heineman scores.4–8
5Tyler Heineman doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Ernie Clement scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.4–6
4Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. George Springer scores. Addison Barger to 2nd.4–5
3William Contreras singles on a fly ball to right fielder Addison Barger. Jackson Chourio scores.4–4
3Brice Turang homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
2George Springer doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Myles Straw scores. George Springer to 3rd.2–4
1Ernie Clement singles on a fly ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nathan Lukes scores.2–3
1Nathan Lukes doubles (16) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.