Padres at Twins
Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to left fielder Austin Martin.
Win probability
Twins100%
SD 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 6 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Austin Martin scores. (inning 3) — +23% Twins
9Bryce Johnson singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Freddy Fermin scores.2–7
9Freddy Fermin doubles (10) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Mason McCoy scores.1–7
7Royce Lewis singles on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brooks Lee scores. Luke Keaschall to 3rd.0–7
5Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ramón Laureano. Luke Keaschall scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.0–6
5Ryan Jeffers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brooks Lee scores. Luke Keaschall to 3rd.0–5
5Luke Keaschall singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ramón Laureano. Byron Buxton scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.0–4
4James Outman singles on a line drive to center fielder Ramón Laureano. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.0–3
3Byron Buxton homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Austin Martin scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
