Braves at Cubs
Last play · Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Seiya Suzuki scores.
Win probability
Cubs100%
ATL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 6 – 2 CHC
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Ian Happ scores. (inning 8) — +45% Cubs
10Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Seiya Suzuki scores.6–7
8Carson Kelly homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Ian Happ scores.6–6
6Dansby Swanson doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Nico Hoerner scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.6–4
5Matt Shaw doubles (19) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Fraley. Dansby Swanson scores.6–2
5Nacho Alvarez Jr. doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Michael Harris II scores.6–1
5Michael Harris II doubles (22) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies scores.5–1
4Ian Happ homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
3Michael Harris II singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
