Guardians at Red Sox
CLE4–
BOS6Last play · Steven Kwan lines out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
CLE 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Narváez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder CJ Kayfus. Rob Refsnyder scores. Nate Eaton scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. (inning 5) — +25% Red Sox
8Kyle Manzardo homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.4–6
6Umpire reviewed (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was overturned: Trevor Story homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
5Carlos Narváez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder CJ Kayfus. Rob Refsnyder scores. Nate Eaton scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.3–5
2Trevor Story singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder CJ Kayfus. Connor Wong scores. Alex Bregman to 2nd.3–3
2Brayan Rocchio singles on a ground ball to right fielder Roman Anthony. Nolan Jones scores. George Valera scores. CJ Kayfus to 2nd.3–2
2CJ Kayfus singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Roman Anthony. Bo Naylor scores. Nolan Jones to 3rd. George Valera to 2nd.1–2
1Romy Gonzalez singles on a line drive to right fielder CJ Kayfus. Alex Bregman scores.0–2
1Trevor Story grounds out, third baseman José Ramírez to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.