Mariners at Rays
Last play · Cole Young grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Yandy Díaz.
Win probability
Rays100%
SEA 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 5 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Nick Fortes homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Mangum scores. Richie Palacios scores. (inning 2) — +26% Rays
9Leo Rivas homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Eugenio Suárez scores.2–10
8Tristan Gray homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Fortes scores.0–10
7Junior Caminero singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Yandy Díaz scores.0–8
7Yandy Díaz doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Nick Fortes scores. Chandler Simpson scores.0–7
3Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Brandon Lowe scores. Junior Caminero out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Julio Rodríguez to catcher Cal Raleigh to shortstop J.P. Crawford.0–5
3Brandon Lowe doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Yandy Díaz scores.0–4
2Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Nick Fortes homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Mangum scores. Richie Palacios scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
