Blue Jays at Reds
Last play · Noelvi Marte singles on a ground ball to left fielder Myles Straw. Matt McLain scores. TJ Friedl scores.
Win probability
Reds100%
TOR 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Myles Straw scores. (inning 9) — -71% Blue Jays
9Noelvi Marte singles on a ground ball to left fielder Myles Straw. Matt McLain scores. TJ Friedl scores.4–5
9Blue Jays challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was overturned: TJ Friedl hits a ground-rule double (19) on a line drive to right field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Matt McLain to 3rd.4–3
9Daulton Varsho homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
9Bo Bichette homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Myles Straw scores.3–2
7Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to left fielder Will Benson. Bo Bichette scores. Daulton Varsho to 2nd.1–2
2Ke'Bryan Hayes doubles (16) on a fly ball to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Gavin Lux scores. Sal Stewart scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
