Phillies at Brewers
Last play · Joey Ortiz grounds out, third baseman Edmundo Sosa to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Brewers0%
PHI 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Collins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh, deflected by shortstop Trea Turner. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd. (inning 8) — +45% Brewers
9Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Harrison Bader singles on a fly ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. J.T. Realmuto scores. Brandon Marsh out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Sal Frelick to third baseman Caleb Durbin.10–8
9Brandon Marsh singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Garrett Stubbs scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.9–8
8Isaac Collins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh, deflected by shortstop Trea Turner. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd.8–8
8Bryson Stott doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Harrison Bader scores.8–6
8Harrison Bader doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Brandon Marsh scores.7–6
6Jackson Chourio reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Bryson Stott. Caleb Durbin scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.6–6
6Edmundo Sosa out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Sal Frelick. Harrison Bader scores.6–5
6Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blake Perkins. Brandon Marsh scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd.5–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
