Angels at Astros
Last play · Matthew Lugo grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
LAA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 3 – 4 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jo Adell homers (31) on a fly ball to left field. Mike Trout scores. (inning 4) — -26% Angels
8Jose Altuve homers (24) on a fly ball to left field. Jacob Melton scores.3–8
8Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Matthew Lugo. Cam Smith scores.3–6
6Jeremy Peña doubles (26) on a line drive to left fielder Matthew Lugo. Cam Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd.3–5
5Carlos Correa singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Bryce Teodosio. Yordan Alvarez scores.3–4
4Ramón Urías singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Bryce Teodosio. Yainer Diaz scores.3–3
4Jo Adell homers (31) on a fly ball to left field. Mike Trout scores.3–2
4Zach Neto homers (25) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
3Jose Altuve doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Matthew Lugo. Jeremy Peña scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
