Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Heriberto Hernández lines out to left fielder James Wood.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 2 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile triples (5) on a fly ball to center fielder Derek Hill. Luis García Jr. scores. (inning 2) — +10% Nationals
2Andrés Chaparro out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Daylen Lile scores.0–2
2Daylen Lile triples (5) on a fly ball to center fielder Derek Hill. Luis García Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
