Dodgers at Pirates
Last play · Will Smith flies out to right fielder Bryan Reynolds.
Win probability
Pirates100%
LAD 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 4 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis singles on a ground ball to right fielder Teoscar Hernández. Andrew McCutchen scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd. (inning 6) — +19% Pirates
9Shohei Ohtani doubles (19) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Hyeseong Kim scores.7–9
8Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Jared Triolo scores.6–9
7Oneil Cruz grounds out, shortstop Mookie Betts to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Tommy Pham scores.6–8
7Will Smith singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Freddie Freeman scores.6–7
7Mookie Betts grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Miguel Rojas scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd.5–7
6Jared Triolo doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Spencer Horwitz scores. Henry Davis scores.4–7
6Henry Davis singles on a ground ball to right fielder Teoscar Hernández. Andrew McCutchen scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.4–5
4Andy Pages homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.4–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
