Rangers at D-backs
Last play · Ketel Marte grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Duran to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
D-backs0%
TEX 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 3 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Alejandro Osuna singles on a sharp line drive to first baseman Tyler Locklear, deflected by pitcher Juan Burgos. Michael Helman scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 10) — -44% Rangers
10Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Alejandro Osuna singles on a sharp line drive to first baseman Tyler Locklear, deflected by pitcher Juan Burgos. Michael Helman scores. Ezequiel Duran scores.7–5
9Cody Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jake Burger scores. Kyle Higashioka to 2nd.5–5
9Jake Burger triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Adolis García scores.4–5
6Gabriel Moreno doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Blaze Alexander scores.3–5
6Blaze Alexander triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Corbin Carroll scores.3–4
6Wyatt Langford homers (21) on a line drive to left field.3–3
3Cody Freeman homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Higashioka scores.2–3
2Tyler Locklear homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
