Orioles at Padres
Last play · Luis Arraez strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Padres0%
BAL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 3 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Ramón Laureano. Dylan Beavers scores. Dylan Carlson scores. (inning 2) — -24% Orioles
7Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to right fielder Ramón Laureano. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.4–3
5Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Freddy Fermin scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.3–3
5Jeremiah Jackson homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
2Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Jake Cronenworth scores. Bryce Johnson to 2nd.2–2
2Bryce Johnson singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Carlson. Gavin Sheets scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.2–1
2Samuel Basallo doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Ramón Laureano. Dylan Beavers scores. Dylan Carlson scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
