Guardians at Red Sox
Last play · Steven Kwan lines out to shortstop Trevor Story.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
CLE 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+205 / -250
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brayan Rocchio homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Manzardo scores. Jhonkensy Noel scores. (inning 6) — -46% Guardians
8Trevor Story doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nolan Jones. Alex Bregman scores. Jarren Duran scores.7–11
8Jarren Duran doubles (36) on a line drive to right fielder Jhonkensy Noel. Nate Eaton scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.7–9
8Alex Bregman singles on a ground ball to third baseman José Ramírez. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Nate Eaton to 2nd.7–8
6Ceddanne Rafaela homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Masataka Yoshida scores.7–7
6Brayan Rocchio homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Manzardo scores. Jhonkensy Noel scores.7–5
6David Fry homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Angel Martínez scores.4–5
6Austin Hedges homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–5
3Nathaniel Lowe homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
