Last play · Will Benson pops out to shortstop Bo Bichette.
Win probability
Reds0%
TOR 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
final
TOR 10 – 8 CIN
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference
-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Hays homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Noelvi Marte scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 2) — +26% Reds
9Addison Barger lines out to left fielder Austin Hays.12–9
8TJ Friedl homers (11) on a line drive to right field.11–9
7Daulton Varsho homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.11–8
4Gavin Lux singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Austin Hays scores.10–8
4Austin Hays doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Davis Schneider. TJ Friedl scores.10–7
4George Springer homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.10–6
2Austin Hays homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Noelvi Marte scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.8–6
2Noelvi Marte reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Matt McLain scores.8–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
TOR12–
CIN9