Yankees at Astros
Last play · Cam Smith lines into a double play, pitcher Paul Blackburn to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Yainer Diaz out at 1st.
Win probability
Astros0%
NYY 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 6 – 0 HOU
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (27) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 2) — -24% Yankees
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (28) on a line drive to right field.7–1
6Yainer Diaz grounds into a force out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Carlos Correa scores. Christian Walker out at 2nd. Yainer Diaz to 1st.6–1
5Trent Grisham hits a grand slam (29) to left center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Cody Bellinger scores. Aaron Judge scores.6–0
2Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (27) on a fly ball to right field. Trent Grisham scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
