Braves at Cubs
Last play · Eli White flies out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Cubs100%
ATL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin Alcántara scores. Nico Hoerner scores. (inning 3) — +27% Cubs
5Eli White homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
4Ozzie Albies homers (14) on a fly ball to left field.2–4
3Ian Happ singles on a sharp ground ball to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Seiya Suzuki scores. Justin Turner to 2nd.0–4
3Kyle Tucker homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin Alcántara scores. Nico Hoerner scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
