Mariners at Rays
Last play · Cal Raleigh pops out to third baseman Junior Caminero.
Win probability
Rays100%
SEA 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 2 TB
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero doubles (24) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 7) — +31% Rays
9Mitch Garver out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Josh Lowe. Jorge Polanco scores.5–6
7Junior Caminero doubles (24) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores.4–6
7Cole Young out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Mangum. Eugenio Suárez scores.4–4
6Tristan Gray out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Josh Lowe scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.3–4
6Junior Caminero homers (40) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
4Jorge Polanco homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
4Julio Rodríguez homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
4Cal Raleigh homers (51) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
