Athletics at Cardinals
Last play · Colby Thomas grounds out sharply, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
ATH 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 0 STL
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Victor Scott II scores. (inning 6) — +34% Cardinals
6Iván Herrera homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Victor Scott II scores.1–2
3Nick Kurtz doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Church. JJ Bleday scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
