Rangers at D-backs
Last play · Josh Smith grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tyler Locklear.
Win probability
D-backs100%
TEX 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 0 AZ
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ketel Marte homers (25) on a line drive to left center field. Jorge Barrosa scores. Jordan Lawlar scores. (inning 7) — +36% D-backs
9Jonah Heim grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tyler Locklear. Ezequiel Duran scores.3–5
7Ketel Marte homers (25) on a line drive to left center field. Jorge Barrosa scores. Jordan Lawlar scores.2–5
6Ildemaro Vargas out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Helman. Gabriel Moreno scores.2–2
6Blaze Alexander singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Helman. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd.2–1
4Alejandro Osuna singles on a fly ball to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Cody Freeman scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd. Alejandro Osuna advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.2–0
3Wyatt Langford out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blaze Alexander. Michael Helman scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
