Mets at Tigers
Last play · Juan Soto flies out to left fielder Riley Greene.
Win probability
Tigers100%
NYM 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 3 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Tigers favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Riley Greene singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Colt Keith scores. Kerry Carpenter scores. (inning 5) — +25% Tigers
7Kerry Carpenter homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Colt Keith scores. Gleyber Torres scores.2–6
6Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.2–3
5Riley Greene singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Colt Keith scores. Kerry Carpenter scores.1–3
3Pete Alonso doubles (35) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Javier Báez. Francisco Lindor scores.1–1
2Jake Rogers singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Zach McKinstry scores. Javier Báez to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
