Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Jakob Marsee called out on strikes.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 7 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. James Wood scores. Daylen Lile scores. (inning 1) — +17% Nationals
8Nasim Nuñez homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Brady House scores.5–10
8Liam Hicks strikes out swinging.5–8
6Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Robert Hassell III scores.4–8
5Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.4–7
5Joey Wiemer homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Eric Wagaman scores.2–7
4Brady House homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Robert Hassell III scores.0–7
2Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. James Wood scores.0–5
2Nasim Nuñez homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
