Mariners at Rays
Last play · Eugenio Suárez grounds into a double play, third baseman Junior Caminero to second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Bob Seymour. Leo Rivas out at 2nd. Eugenio Suárez out at 1st.
Win probability
Rays100%
SEA 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 9 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hunter Feduccia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Junior Caminero scores. Josh Lowe scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. (inning 2) — +9% Rays
6Julio Rodríguez homers (28) on a fly ball to right field. J.P. Crawford scores. Cal Raleigh scores.4–9
6Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Dominic Canzone scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.1–9
5Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Bob Seymour scores.0–9
2Hunter Feduccia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Junior Caminero scores. Josh Lowe scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.0–8
2Junior Caminero doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.0–6
2Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Bob Seymour scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd.0–5
1Hunter Feduccia out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Josh Lowe scores.0–4
1Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Junior Caminero scores. Josh Lowe to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
