Last play · Austin Hays flies out to right fielder Nathan Lukes.
Win probability
Reds0%
TOR 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
final
TOR 6 – 5 CIN
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference
-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Addison Barger homers (19) on a line drive to right center field. George Springer scores. (inning 5) — -25% Blue Jays
9Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (31) on a line drive to center fielder Will Benson. Ernie Clement scores.13–9
8Matt McLain doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder George Springer. Will Benson scores.12–9
8Will Benson doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Myles Straw. Spencer Steer scores.12–8
8Spencer Steer doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Gavin Lux scores.12–7
8Ty France singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Bo Bichette to 3rd.12–6
8Daulton Varsho out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Hays. Myles Straw scores.11–6
8Bo Bichette reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Spencer Steer. George Springer scores. Myles Straw to 3rd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.10–6
8Addison Barger singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.9–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
TOR13–
CIN9