Braves at Cubs
Last play · Carlos Santana called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs0%
ATL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ha-Seong Kim homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 7) — -53% Braves
8Ozzie Albies homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.5–1
7Nacho Alvarez Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Eli White scores.4–1
7Ha-Seong Kim homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores.3–1
2Willi Castro singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Ian Happ scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
