Yankees at Astros
NYY7–
HOU8Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros100%
NYY 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 1 HOU
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Trammell walks. Carlos Correa scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Christian Walker to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Astros
9Cody Bellinger homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan McMahon scores. Aaron Judge scores.7–8
8Yordan Alvarez grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Ben Rice.4–8
8Jeremy Peña singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cody Bellinger. Jesús Sánchez scores. Christian Walker to 3rd. Taylor Trammell to 2nd.4–6
8Taylor Trammell walks. Carlos Correa scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Christian Walker to 2nd.4–5
7Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Jacob Melton scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd. Yordan Alvarez advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Giancarlo Stanton.4–4
6Jose Altuve grounds out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to first baseman Ben Rice. Yordan Alvarez scores.4–3
6Jeremy Peña homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
6Ryan McMahon out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Ben Rice scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.