Phillies at Brewers
Last play · Kyle Schwarber grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
PHI 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Frelick singles on a fly ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Brice Turang scores. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Harrison Bader. (inning 1) — +17% Brewers
7Weston Wilson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Nick Castellanos scores.3–6
5Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nick Castellanos scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd.1–6
4Brice Turang doubles (25) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Weston Wilson. Jake Bauers scores.0–6
1Isaac Collins homers (9) on a line drive to right field. William Contreras scores. Sal Frelick scores.0–5
1Sal Frelick singles on a fly ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Brice Turang scores. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Harrison Bader.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
