Orioles at Padres
BAL7–
SD5Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.
Win probability
Padres0%
BAL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 0 SD
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -190
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colton Cowser homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan Mountcastle scores. Emmanuel Rivera scores. (inning 3) — -26% Orioles
7Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.7–5
6Jose Iglesias grounds into a double play, shortstop Luis Vázquez to second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo. Ramón Laureano scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd. Jose Iglesias out at 1st.7–4
6Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to shortstop Luis Vázquez. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.7–3
6Manny Machado homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Arraez scores.7–2
3Ryan Mountcastle singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Luis Vázquez scores. Jackson Holliday to 2nd.7–0
3Alex Jackson homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.6–0
3Coby Mayo homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.5–0
3Colton Cowser homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan Mountcastle scores. Emmanuel Rivera scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.