Yankees at Astros
Last play · Christian Walker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
NYY 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 1 HOU
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jesús Sánchez homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — +18% Astros
9Yordan Alvarez singles on a line drive to left fielder Jasson Domínguez. Victor Caratini scores. Taylor Trammell to 3rd.8–4
8Trent Grisham homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Austin Wells scores. Ryan McMahon scores.8–3
8Ryan McMahon singles on a sharp ground ball to second baseman Ramón Urías, deflected by shortstop Jeremy Peña. Jasson Domínguez scores. Austin Wells to 3rd.5–3
7Jesús Sánchez homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.4–3
6Astros challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Carlos Correa grounds into a force out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to second baseman José Caballero. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jose Altuve out at 2nd. Carlos Correa to 1st. Throwing error by second baseman José Caballero.4–2
5José Caballero walks. Ben Rice scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.4–1
5Cody Bellinger singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd.3–1
5Ryan McMahon homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
