Guardians at Rays
Last play · Gabriel Arias grounds out, pitcher Pete Fairbanks to second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Yandy Díaz.
Win probability
Rays100%
CLE 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Williams singles on a ground ball to shortstop Gabriel Arias. Christopher Morel scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. (inning 4) — +9% Rays
9Kyle Manzardo homers (25) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
9José Ramírez homers (27) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
6Carson Williams out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Matt Festa to second baseman Brayan Rocchio. Jake Mangum scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd.0–4
6Josh Lowe reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Brayan Rocchio. Christopher Morel scores.0–3
4Carson Williams singles on a ground ball to shortstop Gabriel Arias. Christopher Morel scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.0–2
1Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nolan Jones. Junior Caminero scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd. Christopher Morel to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
