Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Victor Mesa Jr. flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PHI 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 5 – 1 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+2.5
Moneyline
reference-240 / +200
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Marsh homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. J.T. Realmuto scores. (inning 4) — -21% Phillies
8Brian Navarreto homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Jack Winkler scores.9–3
7Bryson Stott homers (10) on a line drive to right center field. Harrison Bader scores. Max Kepler scores.9–1
7Max Kepler singles on a line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Brandon Marsh scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd.6–1
4Harrison Bader homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.5–1
4Brandon Marsh homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. J.T. Realmuto scores.4–1
3Javier Sanoja doubles (18) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Victor Mesa Jr. scores.2–1
2Max Kepler homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
1Bryce Harper singles on a fly ball to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
