Nationals at Cubs
Last play · Riley Adams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
WSH 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 8 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+180 / -225
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner doubles (25) on a fly ball to left fielder James Wood. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 1) — +9% Cubs
8Ian Happ homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.5–11
6Nico Hoerner homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.5–10
6Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder James Wood. Ian Happ scores.5–9
6Luis García Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Daylen Lile scores.5–8
6Daylen Lile triples (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. CJ Abrams scores. Josh Bell scores.4–8
4Willi Castro hits a ground-rule double (16) on a line drive down the left-field line. Ian Happ scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.2–8
4Luis García Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Daylen Lile scores.2–6
2Reese McGuire homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
