Dodgers at Orioles
Last play · Samuel Basallo homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.
Win probability
Orioles100%
LAD 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — -23% Dodgers
9Samuel Basallo homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
6Freddie Freeman homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
5Ryan Mountcastle grounds out, second baseman Miguel Rojas to first baseman Freddie Freeman.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
