Brewers at Pirates
Last play · Oneil Cruz grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Pirates0%
MIL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. William Contreras scores. Sal Frelick scores. (inning 6) — -31% Brewers
9Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Gonzales. William Contreras scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd. Throwing error by second baseman Nick Gonzales.5–2
8Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Jake Bauers scores.4–2
6Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. William Contreras scores. Sal Frelick scores.3–2
3Tommy Pham doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–2
2Oneil Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nick Gonzales scores.1–1
1William Contreras reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Jared Triolo. Brice Turang scores. Isaac Collins to 3rd. William Contreras to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
