Mets at Reds
Last play · Gavin Lux grounds out, second baseman Luisangel Acuña to pitcher Edwin Díaz.
Win probability
Reds0%
NYM 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 4 CIN
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mets challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Tyler Stephenson doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Austin Hays scores. Spencer Steer scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. (inning 4) — +21% Reds
4Ke'Bryan Hayes out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Tyler Stephenson scores.5–4
4Mets challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Tyler Stephenson doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Austin Hays scores. Spencer Steer scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd.5–3
4Juan Soto doubles (17) on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Francisco Lindor scores.5–1
3Noelvi Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Matt McLain scores. TJ Friedl to 3rd.4–1
3Mark Vientos homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
1Starling Marte singles on a fly ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Mark Vientos scores.3–0
1Brandon Nimmo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Juan Soto scores. Mark Vientos to 2nd.2–0
1Mark Vientos singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
