Astros at Rangers
Last play · Dustin Harris doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Cody Freeman scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Correa homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 8) — -34% Astros
12Dustin Harris doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Cody Freeman scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd.3–4
8Carlos Correa homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Jose Altuve scores.3–3
3Jake Burger homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Wyatt Langford scores.1–3
2Dylan Moore out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Josh Jung scores. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd.1–1
2Victor Caratini singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Jesús Sánchez scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
