Red Sox at D-backs
Last play · Jarren Duran grounds out to first baseman Tyler Locklear.
Win probability
D-backs100%
BOS 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 6 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas homers (3) on a line drive to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Blaze Alexander scores. (inning 3) — +22% D-backs
8Corbin Carroll homers (30) on a fly ball to right field. Jorge Barrosa scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.5–10
8Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Tyler Locklear scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd.5–7
8Rob Refsnyder doubles (11) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Blaze Alexander. Trevor Story scores.5–6
8Romy Gonzalez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Alex Bregman scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.4–6
8Alex Bregman doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Carlos Narváez scores. Jarren Duran scores.3–6
5Jordan Lawlar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Gabriel Moreno scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd.1–6
3Ildemaro Vargas homers (3) on a line drive to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Blaze Alexander scores.1–5
2Ketel Marte walks.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
