Mariners at Braves
Last play · Vidal Bruján lines out to second baseman Leo Rivas.
Win probability
Braves0%
SEA 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 1 ATL
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez homers (30) on a line drive to center field. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 7) — -31% Mariners
9Cal Raleigh homers (52) on a fly ball to right field.10–2
8Josh Naylor homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.9–2
7J.P. Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jorge Polanco scores.6–2
7Eugenio Suárez homers (43) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
7Julio Rodríguez homers (30) on a line drive to center field. Randy Arozarena scores.4–2
6Michael Harris II out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Drake Baldwin scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.2–2
4Matt Olson homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Julio Rodríguez homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Cal Raleigh scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
