Twins at Royals
Last play · Mickey Gasper lines out to center fielder Kyle Isbel.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Maikel Garcia homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. (inning 3) — +23% Royals
5Jhonny Pereda doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Brooks Lee scores.1–2
3Maikel Garcia homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
